Occam’s Razor
Occam’s Razor is a problem solving principle that was first introduced by the English logician and Franciscan friar, William of Ockham, in the 14th century. The principle states that, when presented with multiple explanations for a phenomenon, one should choose the explanation that makes the fewest number of assumptions. This principle is often referred to as the principle of parsimony. It is a really useful mental model to have in ones toolkit.
Ockham argued that the simplest explanation for a phenomenon was the most likely to be correct, and that one should not make unnecessary assumptions about the nature of the world. This idea was later codified into the principle of parsimony, which states that, in scientific investigation, the simplest explanation that is consistent with the available evidence is the most likely to be correct.
In psychology, the principle of parsimony can be used to evaluate competing explanations for human behavior. For example, if two explanations are offered for why a person acts in a particular way, one that invokes a complex series of psychological processes and another that can be explained through a single motive, the latter explanation is considered to be more likely to be correct because it makes fewer assumptions.
Occam’s Razor can be applied in both business and personal life during decision making. Here are a few examples:
Personal life: A person experiencing headaches can assume the simplest explanation, with the least number of assumptions, that they are probably dehydrated. The person decides to drink more water and monitor their headache symptoms before seeking other medical explanations.
Business: A marketing manager is trying to determine why a new product launch was unsuccessful. The simplest explanation, with the least number of assumptions, is that the product did not meet customer needs. The manager decides to conduct customer research to confirm this before exploring other, more complex explanations such as poor marketing strategies.
In these examples, Occam’s Razor is used as a mental model to make quick and informed decisions, by focusing on the simplest explanation first, and then gathering more information to confirm or reject the hypothesis.
Occam’s Razor is useful in many situations as a way of making quick choices and finding out the truth without having all the facts. It is most effective as a thought process for making initial judgments before all the details can be gathered.
However, it’s crucial to remember that like any other thinking tool, Occam’s Razor is not always accurate. Be cautious when using it, especially for significant or high-stakes decisions. There are exceptions to every rule, and we should never automatically accept the results from applying a mental model if they contradict logic, experience, or facts. For example, if you hear hooves, the likely explanation is horses, not zebras, unless you are in Africa.
Additionally, just because an explanation is simple, doesn’t mean it’s correct. The conclusion must have supporting evidence. When using Occam’s Razor to make deductions, we must also be aware of confirmation bias and not let it influence our conclusions.
Another issue with Occam’s Razor is that the reality is more complex than what we can imagine. Some particles and characteristics appear to be unnecessary for relevant physical processes, but they still exist. This means that sometimes, the most straightforward explanation may not be the accurate one.
